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Prediction for CME (2024-08-01T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-01T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32420/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is an M8.2 flare and eruption from Active Region 13768 (S15W80) starting around 2024-08-01T07:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is visible in GOES SUVI 171, 195, and 284 imagery at this time as well. Arrival: there is a clear ICME arrival signatures with a shock (according to analysis by the LASSOS team (Carlos Perez Alanis). During the shock B total reaches 19.5 nT and density gets increased to 20p/cc, followed by a period of significant negative Bz reaching -17nT. This signature of ICME shock is preceded by a less clear disturbance in the magnetic field at L1 with Btotal increasing from 8nT at 2024-08-04T04:48Z to 15nT at 06:11Z followed by a protracted period of negative Bz.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-04T13:21Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-03T09:36Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32446/1
Model Inputs:
2024-07-31T18:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=50.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=1109.0, HalfAngle=50.0, Time21.5=2024-07-31T21:43Z
2024-08-01T07:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=50.0, Lat.=7.0, Speed=1100.0, HalfAngle=50.0, Time21.5=2024-08-01T10:49Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-08-03T09:36Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =46.9 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.0
(kp)90=4
(kp)180=6

Other Location(s) Impact:
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-03T18:56Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T08:04Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T19:32Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-08-02T14:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240801_104900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 67.53 hour(s)
Difference: 27.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2024-08-01T17:49Z

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